In 2025, France’s reindustrialization progressed unevenly across sectors. Data from the State Industrial Barometer show that new site openings were concentrated in defense, certain aerospace segments and activities linked to the energy transition, while automotive, chemicals and several intermediate sectors recorded closures. How can these diverging industrial trajectories be explained?
When industrial transformation widens the gaps between sectors
Available data point to a growing divide between sectors able to sustain investment levels and those facing site closures. In 2025, this differentiation resulted in sharply contrasting industrial trajectories across sectors.
Selective reindustrialization driven by public orders and investment
The sectors considered winners benefited from medium-term market visibility, often linked to public procurement, planned investment programs or national strategic priorities. This was the case for certain civil and military aerospace segments, largely driven by defense.
Conversely, struggling sectors were forced to rapidly transform their production models without equivalent guaranteed market outlets. Automotive and chemicals faced a combination of regulatory pressure, rising production costs and demand uncertainty, amid intensified international competition.
Four constraints affecting all sectors
Several shared constraints weighed on the entire industrial fabric and helped explain the divergence in sectoral trajectories.
The first concerned human resources. Recruitment tensions, an aging workforce and skills mismatches limited industrial ramp-up, including in growth sectors. The Industry in Motion Barometer highlighted the role of technical skills shortages in slowing productive modernization.
The second constraint was energy cost volatility. This weighed heavily on sectors, particularly chemicals and plastics. Here, sectors able to rapidly integrate energy efficiency or decarbonization measures retained a relative advantage.
The third concerned industrial land availability. France Stratégie estimates that the need for additional industrial land by 2035 has run up against limits on land take, delays in brownfield redevelopment and local project acceptability.
Finally, several scenarios have shown that some industrial activities will need to arbitrate between growth and water sobriety, particularly in territories already under climatic stress.
What made the difference between winners and losers in 2025
What made the difference in 2025—and will remain decisive in 2026—was the ability to absorb multiple simultaneous shocks:
- technological transition;
- environmental constraints;
- skills pressure;
- value chain restructuring.
2025 winners: defense, aerospace and green industry
Data from the State Industrial Barometer show that most industrial site openings occurred in defense, certain aerospace segments and activities linked to the energy transition.
Defense: the main industrial driver in 2025
Defense was the most dynamic sector in 2025, accounting for a significant share of site creations and industrial capacity expansions recorded in the first half of the year.
This momentum mainly benefited mechanical engineering, electronics, embedded systems and materials, supported by an extensive subcontracting network across territories.
Aerospace: growth concentrated in defense-related activities
Industrial creations were mainly recorded in civil and military aerospace segments linked to defense, as well as certain high-tech activities such as precision machining, electronics and composite materials.
Conversely, several segments of civil aerospace have not returned to pre-crisis activity levels, with investment dynamics still uneven across territories and value chains.
Green industry: momentum dependent on the public framework
Industrial activities linked to the energy transition showed positive momentum in 2025, with site openings in electrical equipment, renewable energy, recycling and certain decarbonization technologies.
This growth remained heavily dependent on public policies, support schemes and calls for projects, limiting its diffusion across the broader industrial fabric.
2025 losers: automotive and chemicals
In 2025, automotive and chemicals recorded a net negative balance of industrial establishments, marked by a high number of site closures in both sectors.
Automotive: decline concentrated among suppliers
The automotive sector experienced a significant number of closures, mainly affecting suppliers specialized in internal combustion technologies. The shift to electric vehicles did not, in the short term, generate equivalent industrial volumes in France.
Electric vehicle-related activities require fewer components and less industrial labor. This shift resulted in a net loss of productive capacity, without sufficient offset from new industrial investments.
Chemicals: a downturn driven by costs and regulatory constraints
The chemicals sector also followed a negative trajectory. Closures primarily affected basic chemicals and certain intermediate segments, particularly exposed to energy costs and stricter environmental requirements.
The investments required for decarbonization and process modernization remained high, while visibility on market outlets remained insufficient to secure long-term industrial decisions.
Sectors under pressure: agri-food and plastics
Agri-food and plastics followed an intermediate trajectory, combining targeted investments with persistent industrial adjustments.
Agri-food: modernization without expansion
Agri-food remained one of France’s largest industrial sectors by volume, but with a negative balance of openings and closures. Investments focused on production tool modernization, automation and environmental compliance rather than on creating new capacity.
The sector continued to evolve under constraint due to energy costs, decarbonization requirements and resource tensions, without benefiting from the same momentum seen in sectors supported by public procurement.
Plastics: strong exposure to downstream markets
Plastics proved particularly vulnerable in 2025. Activity remained closely dependent on declining or restructuring client sectors, notably automotive and construction. Sector indicators pointed to slowing activity, increased margin pressure and workforce adjustments.
Industrial projects mainly focused on recycling and the circular economy, without being able, in the short term, to offset the decline in traditional uses.
Mapping sectoral opportunities and risks
In 2025, industrial opportunities were concentrated around:
Public procurement and sovereignty: defense, aerospace, strategic equipment.
- Energy transition: electrical equipment, renewable energy, recycling and industrial decarbonization, driven by calls for projects and dedicated funding.
- Upgrading production: automation, robotics and modernization of industrial tools in certain traditional sectors, generating competitiveness gains without net capacity creation.
Risks were concentrated in sectors exposed to multiple simultaneous constraints, without sufficient compensating levers.
- Production costs: energy and raw materials have durably penalized energy-intensive sectors, notably chemicals and plastics.
- Uncompensated transitions: automotive electrification and tighter regulation led to losses in industrial capacity.
- Resource constraints: skills shortages, industrial land availability and water resources limited some investment projects.
- Sectoral dependence: intermediate sectors exposed to declining client markets, particularly plastics and automotive subcontracting.
In 2025, industrial opportunities rested on securing market outlets and investment capacity. Risks mainly affected sectors forced to absorb rapid transformations without equivalent growth drivers or sufficient economic visibility.
Sources:
Directorate General for Enterprise (DGE), State Industrial Barometer – H1 2025, Ministry of the Economy.
Bpifrance – Banque des Territoires – France Industrie, Industry in Motion Barometer.
France Stratégie, Industrial Foresight – Activity Report 2024, Vie publique.