On March 17, 2026, GIFEC brought together its members for a webinar dedicated to a major issue for industry: energy geopolitics. Led by Francis Perrin, the conference provided an analysis of ongoing disruptions through five key lenses: oil, Ukraine, Trump, Venezuela, and Iran. This in-depth perspective highlighted international tensions reshaping supply conditions, market balances, and, more broadly, the decision-making environment for industrial companies.
Key takeaways from the webinar
Energy is a lever of power, a factor of dependency, and an accelerator of risk. For industrial players, this means geopolitical shocks quickly translate into price tensions, logistical disruptions, volatility, and uncertainty across value chains. These developments are what GIFEC seeks to decode and share with its members to help them better anticipate changes in their economic environment.
Oil is and will remain a strategic resource
One of Francis Perrin’s main conclusions is clear: the often-predicted end of oil is not imminent. Oil remains an extremely strategic raw material.
A dominant energy at the heart of the global economy
Despite ongoing energy transitions, oil remains the dominant energy source. It is essential in transport, industry, logistics, and petrochemicals in other words, at the core of the global economy.
A globalized energy in a globalized world
The webinar also emphasized that oil is the most globalized energy source. A very large share of global production is traded internationally, much more so than gas or coal.
Globalization and exposure to regional crises
This globalized flow makes markets highly sensitive to regional crises, especially in the Middle East, which holds a decisive share of proven oil reserves. Tensions in this region therefore have far-reaching consequences, directly affecting costs, timelines, and visibility for industrial players worldwide.
War in Ukraine: new energy balances
The second key is Ukraine. Francis Perrin highlighted the link between the war and energy. While not a war “for” energy, it has major consequences across the entire energy system: gas, oil, nuclear, electricity, transport infrastructure, and supply security.
One major shift lies in the reconfiguration of the gas market. The war has accelerated the decline of Russian exports to Europe while strengthening the role of other energy powers, particularly the United States.
For European companies, this transformation has resulted in a new hierarchy of dependencies, greater exposure to volatility, and increased sensitivity to geopolitical decisions. This is not abstract: it directly impacts supply security, production costs, and industrial competitiveness.
With Trump, energy becomes an explicit tool of domination
The third key is Donald Trump, with a clear objective for U.S. energy policy: to make the United States the dominant energy power. Increased production, pressure on prices, support for hydrocarbons, development of LNG exports energy is used as a tool of economic, industrial, and diplomatic power.
This strategy directly impacts global balances. It influences markets and power dynamics among producers while reinforcing the role of energy in strategic competition. For industrial players, U.S. political decisions can quickly affect prices, flows, and overall market conditions.
Venezuela and Iran: sources of tension with global consequences
Venezuela and especially Iran are two other major points of concern discussed during the conference.
Venezuela holds vast reserves, but its production remains low due to poor sector management and U.S. sanctions. In Francis Perrin’s analysis, the Venezuelan issue goes far beyond the national context. Oil is a lever of power that Washington seeks to control to influence Caracas, contain Chinese influence, and ultimately ease pressure on global prices.
However, Iran is currently the most critical concern. Due to its position in the global energy system, its nuclear program, and its geographical location, the country sits at the center of a major geopolitical node. Tensions surrounding Iran extend far beyond diplomacy they also affect maritime routes, oil exports, LNG, refining capacities, and overall Middle East stability.
In this context, the Strait of Hormuz once again becomes a strategic chokepoint. Any sustained disruption in this area could trigger global ripple effects: price spikes, supply tensions, and weakened logistics chains.
For industrial players, this is critical, as these shocks propagate through entire value chains, sometimes with delayed but real effects on production costs and pricing. These impacts can appear within weeks depending on production cycles, sectors, and margin strategies.
For industrial players, the challenge is no longer just optimization, but anticipation
This is perhaps the most important message for GIFEC members. In a world where energy is both a source of power and vulnerability, companies can no longer treat geopolitical risk as background noise.
It becomes part of corporate strategy: mapping critical dependencies, diversifying sources, monitoring logistics routes, tracking markets, and building the capacity to absorb sudden price increases.
True to its mission, GIFEC supports its members in navigating this complexity. By providing analysis, knowledge-sharing, and perspective, the organization helps industrial players better understand ongoing transformations, assess their impacts, and adapt their decisions in an increasingly unstable, interconnected, and demanding environment.
Understanding energy geopolitics today is not about observing the world from a distance. It is about equipping oneself to act with greater clarity, resilience, and competitiveness.